San Marino, California
October 24, 2024
Yesterday my brother in law Ken and I began a conversation about the environmental breakeven of electric vehicles. I say “began” because I think it will continue as we both learn more about the subject.
Initially I was not on the same page with him — he was talking about environmental breakeven and I thought we were discussing economic breakeven. Once I got on the same page with him, I realized my knowledge of the subject pointed at E — as in empty.
I have spent some time since then trying to research the issue. I still haven’t found a primary source that goes into the depth I’d like. Sounds like Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) has good research and reporting, but their information is behind an expensive paywall. ☹️
From what I have read, the reporting on this issue is poor. There are conclusions but without explanation of the supporting data and analysis.
To a degree, I understand that. There are a large number of assumptions and location specific facts that factor into the analysis. What size vehicle are we talking about, the fuel sources for the electricity currently and in the future, the components of batteries now and in the future, does the life cycle analysis include ALL relevant sources of pollution, are we taking only CO2 or are including all pollution….
I found the following articles helpful in increasing my understanding of the issue.
When do electric vehicles become cleaner than gasoline cars? - https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/when-do-electric-vehicles-become-cleaner-than-gasoline-cars-2021-06-29/#:~:text=Its%20%22well%2Dto%2Dwheel,carbon%20dioxide%20(CO2)%20compliance
The GREET model
Wall Street Journal
Wall Street Journal
Here’s where I come out at this time.
Somewhere between 20,000 and 40,000 miles EV’s, EVs are cumulative cleaner than ICE (internal combustion engine vehicles) in terms of CO2 emissions. One of the key variables is the source of the electricity for charging EVs. If you charge them from your own solar panels or as is the case in California you charge them during the day (when renewables are producing the most electricity) then you are probably at the lower end of that range.
Ken raised the issue that it will take him several years to even drive enough miles to be at the low end of the break even range. But the car he owns will over its lifetime (excluding who the owner is) likely go well over the break even range. Relevant facts — most batteries are warranted for 100,000 miles and the average vehicle’s life is 200,000 miles.
The fourth article I cite above raises the issue of particulate pollution. I’ll need to look at that subject to understand it better.
Like everything in life it seems, there will always be disagreement. Some adamantly believe the universe is 6,000 years old and the science of dating objects such as rocks is wrong. In 2019 Gallup found 40 percent of US adults believe that. Some believe the earth is flat. This number is reported to be 2-4 percent. And …
Heck, I bet there is a nonzero percentage of the population who believe pi is not 3.24159….
But I digress!
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